Economic success through salvation? Experimental evidence from the evangelical movement
An extensive literature has documented the importance of values and norms for economic growth. Religious beliefs and practices play a prominent role through their influence on rules of behavior, social interactions, and values more generally. This project uses the evangelical movement - one of the fastest growing religious movements in the world, especially in Africa - as its stepping-stone with the goal of studying the causal effects of religious beliefs and behavior on socio-economic welfare.
Final report
1. Project purpose and development
The purpose of the project was to generate credible causal evidence on the economic and social effects of joining the rapidly expanding Pentecostal-Evangelical movement in Sub-Saharan Africa. A large literature documents correlations between religion, norms, and economic outcomes, but identifying the causal impact of religious participation is difficult because entry into religious communities is highly selective, as emphasized by Iannaccone (1998).
The project was designed to overcome this limitation by embedding an experimental encouragement design inside a real-world religious outreach program. The overarching aim was to understand who joins the movement when encouraged, to measure the causal effects of religious renewal on economic and social outcomes, and to explore gender differences in the pathways of impact.
The project developed in several stages. First, we established a multi-year partnership with a large African-founded Pentecostal-evangelical church in Uganda whose congregations routinely conduct structured outreach aimed at attracting new members. These activities involve teams of pastors visiting households in selected neighborhoods, introducing the church and inviting residents to attend services. Against this background, we designed a randomized encouragement intervention embedded in a planned outreach activity in two mid-sized Ugandan towns.
Around each church branch we constructed a sampling frame of households located within a three-kilometer radius. This produced a listing of just over 3,600 households, which formed the basis for the baseline survey. The survey collected information on religion, economic activity, social networks, well-being, aspirations, and household structure.
Households were then randomly assigned to be visited, or not visited, by pastors during the church’s scheduled outreach period. In the treatment arm, pastors conducted their normal outreach visits. Importantly, the content and delivery of the message were entirely determined by the church and reflected their standard practice. By contrast, the research team’s role was limited to random assignment and measurement. After the initial visits, encouraged households received one or two follow-up SMS reminders using the church’s communication system. This reproduced the church’s established outreach model while introducing the exogenous variation needed for causal identification. In short, the trial introduced random variation in the probability and timing of participating in a routine outreach activity that the church had already scheduled, organized, and implemented, leaving the pool of potential participants, the total number of participants, and the outreach content unchanged by the study.
Twenty months after the outreach, an endline survey was conducted with low and balanced attrition. This allowed estimation of both intention-to-treat effects of encouragement and local average treatment effects of actually joining the movement. The design provides unusually strong causal leverage in an area where, as noted by Iannaccone (1998), a genuine experiment has long been considered nearly unattainable. The endline survey replicated nearly all key measures from baseline, which made it possible to track changes in economic behavior, religious engagement, social relations, and psychological well-being.
2. Brief description of implementation
The project combined close collaboration with the partner church and strict separation of roles. The church selected outreach dates, designed and delivered all spiritual content, and used its own pastoral teams and communication channels. The research team constructed the sampling frame, implemented baseline and endline surveys, carried out random assignment of households to encouragement, and analyzed the data. All fieldwork followed local ethical approvals and informed consent procedures, and the intervention was integrated into activities that the church would have undertaken in any case.
3. Main results and conclusions
The project yielded several important results. First, the encouragement design substantially increased participation in the Pentecostal-Evangelical congregation. Households in the encouragement group became significantly more likely to identify the partner church as their primary place of worship and to attend services regularly. This strong first stage allows precise estimation of the causal effects of joining.
Second, joining the movement caused substantial increases in earnings and economic activity, but these gains were experienced exclusively by women. Women who joined as a result of encouragement reported higher monthly earnings, greater business ownership, more hours worked, and broader involvement in productive activities. The employment gains operate through business creation rather than wage jobs, which indicates that the congregation is particularly important as an institution that supports female entrepreneurship. Men, by contrast, experienced little change in earnings, employment, or business ownership.
Third, the mechanisms behind these gendered effects point primarily to changes in social and economic networks. Women who joined gained new contacts, discussed business and job opportunities more often, and became more integrated into the congregation’s social life. Additional analysis shows that these expanded networks do not operate through improved access to credit or increased job offers. Women report greater ability to raise emergency funds, but this operates through own savings and earnings rather than network-based finance. Job offers do not increase. Instead, among business owners, there is a shift toward receiving help from non-kin rather than from family, which is consistent with church-based networks providing customers, referrals, and business support. By contrast, psychological and doctrinal changes do not mediate the economic gains. Men become more religiously committed and theologically strict, and show evidence of identity and belief change, but these shifts translate into spiritual and normative transformation rather than improved economic outcomes.
Taken together, and in the context of this study, these results suggest that the congregation functions as a gender-differentiated institution. For women it provides economically valuable business networks that substitute for missing labor market institutions and limited access to secular business circles. For men it primarily offers identity, belonging, and religious meaning without clear economic returns. The same religious intervention thus generates divergent material and spiritual effects by gender.
These findings also lead to several broader conclusions. The study provides the first experimental evidence that joining a Pentecostal-Evangelical congregation can causally shape economic and social life. The evidence points strongly toward network expansion as the primary mechanism behind the economic effects rather than doctrinal or psychological change. The results also show that the same religious intervention can produce divergent effects for men and women, underscoring the importance of considering gendered pathways when analyzing the impact of cultural or religious institutions. More broadly the study highlights the capacity of fast-growing religious movements, in the context of the study, to substitute for missing labor market institutions, particularly for women, by creating opportunities for social and economic advancement through dense, supportive networks.
4. New research questions
The results raise several research questions that warrant further investigation.
One concerns the absence of economic gains among men. Men show increases in religious intensity and doctrinal strictness, and some evidence of behavioral change, yet these shifts do not translate into higher earnings or employment. Understanding why men do not convert religious transformation into economic gains remains an open puzzle.
A second question concerns the durability and scaling of the gains experienced by women. Long-term follow-up is needed to assess whether improvements in earnings and business outcomes persist, grow, or attenuate over time, and whether similar effects would arise in other settings or denominations.
A third avenue for research concerns the broader political and social implications of rapid religious expansion. The movement influences social norms, gender roles, and political attitudes, and future work could examine whether the same network structures that support women’s businesses also shape civic engagement and political participation.
5. Dissemination and collaboration
The project group has actively disseminated the preliminary findings. Presentations have been completed at HKU Business School (Hong Kong), Monash University (Melbourne), Norwegian School of Economics (Bergen), National University of Singapore, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm University, Umeå University, Università Cattolica (Milan), and UNSW Sydney, with further seminars planned. A working paper is being prepared and will be circulated widely and submitted to a leading journal upon completion.
In addition, the team has engaged with local research staff and survey firms, building capacity for experimental work in similar institutional settings. Overall, the project combines rigorous scientific research with outreach to both academic and practitioner audiences and generates new insights into how religious movements shape economic and social outcomes in contemporary Africa.
The purpose of the project was to generate credible causal evidence on the economic and social effects of joining the rapidly expanding Pentecostal-Evangelical movement in Sub-Saharan Africa. A large literature documents correlations between religion, norms, and economic outcomes, but identifying the causal impact of religious participation is difficult because entry into religious communities is highly selective, as emphasized by Iannaccone (1998).
The project was designed to overcome this limitation by embedding an experimental encouragement design inside a real-world religious outreach program. The overarching aim was to understand who joins the movement when encouraged, to measure the causal effects of religious renewal on economic and social outcomes, and to explore gender differences in the pathways of impact.
The project developed in several stages. First, we established a multi-year partnership with a large African-founded Pentecostal-evangelical church in Uganda whose congregations routinely conduct structured outreach aimed at attracting new members. These activities involve teams of pastors visiting households in selected neighborhoods, introducing the church and inviting residents to attend services. Against this background, we designed a randomized encouragement intervention embedded in a planned outreach activity in two mid-sized Ugandan towns.
Around each church branch we constructed a sampling frame of households located within a three-kilometer radius. This produced a listing of just over 3,600 households, which formed the basis for the baseline survey. The survey collected information on religion, economic activity, social networks, well-being, aspirations, and household structure.
Households were then randomly assigned to be visited, or not visited, by pastors during the church’s scheduled outreach period. In the treatment arm, pastors conducted their normal outreach visits. Importantly, the content and delivery of the message were entirely determined by the church and reflected their standard practice. By contrast, the research team’s role was limited to random assignment and measurement. After the initial visits, encouraged households received one or two follow-up SMS reminders using the church’s communication system. This reproduced the church’s established outreach model while introducing the exogenous variation needed for causal identification. In short, the trial introduced random variation in the probability and timing of participating in a routine outreach activity that the church had already scheduled, organized, and implemented, leaving the pool of potential participants, the total number of participants, and the outreach content unchanged by the study.
Twenty months after the outreach, an endline survey was conducted with low and balanced attrition. This allowed estimation of both intention-to-treat effects of encouragement and local average treatment effects of actually joining the movement. The design provides unusually strong causal leverage in an area where, as noted by Iannaccone (1998), a genuine experiment has long been considered nearly unattainable. The endline survey replicated nearly all key measures from baseline, which made it possible to track changes in economic behavior, religious engagement, social relations, and psychological well-being.
2. Brief description of implementation
The project combined close collaboration with the partner church and strict separation of roles. The church selected outreach dates, designed and delivered all spiritual content, and used its own pastoral teams and communication channels. The research team constructed the sampling frame, implemented baseline and endline surveys, carried out random assignment of households to encouragement, and analyzed the data. All fieldwork followed local ethical approvals and informed consent procedures, and the intervention was integrated into activities that the church would have undertaken in any case.
3. Main results and conclusions
The project yielded several important results. First, the encouragement design substantially increased participation in the Pentecostal-Evangelical congregation. Households in the encouragement group became significantly more likely to identify the partner church as their primary place of worship and to attend services regularly. This strong first stage allows precise estimation of the causal effects of joining.
Second, joining the movement caused substantial increases in earnings and economic activity, but these gains were experienced exclusively by women. Women who joined as a result of encouragement reported higher monthly earnings, greater business ownership, more hours worked, and broader involvement in productive activities. The employment gains operate through business creation rather than wage jobs, which indicates that the congregation is particularly important as an institution that supports female entrepreneurship. Men, by contrast, experienced little change in earnings, employment, or business ownership.
Third, the mechanisms behind these gendered effects point primarily to changes in social and economic networks. Women who joined gained new contacts, discussed business and job opportunities more often, and became more integrated into the congregation’s social life. Additional analysis shows that these expanded networks do not operate through improved access to credit or increased job offers. Women report greater ability to raise emergency funds, but this operates through own savings and earnings rather than network-based finance. Job offers do not increase. Instead, among business owners, there is a shift toward receiving help from non-kin rather than from family, which is consistent with church-based networks providing customers, referrals, and business support. By contrast, psychological and doctrinal changes do not mediate the economic gains. Men become more religiously committed and theologically strict, and show evidence of identity and belief change, but these shifts translate into spiritual and normative transformation rather than improved economic outcomes.
Taken together, and in the context of this study, these results suggest that the congregation functions as a gender-differentiated institution. For women it provides economically valuable business networks that substitute for missing labor market institutions and limited access to secular business circles. For men it primarily offers identity, belonging, and religious meaning without clear economic returns. The same religious intervention thus generates divergent material and spiritual effects by gender.
These findings also lead to several broader conclusions. The study provides the first experimental evidence that joining a Pentecostal-Evangelical congregation can causally shape economic and social life. The evidence points strongly toward network expansion as the primary mechanism behind the economic effects rather than doctrinal or psychological change. The results also show that the same religious intervention can produce divergent effects for men and women, underscoring the importance of considering gendered pathways when analyzing the impact of cultural or religious institutions. More broadly the study highlights the capacity of fast-growing religious movements, in the context of the study, to substitute for missing labor market institutions, particularly for women, by creating opportunities for social and economic advancement through dense, supportive networks.
4. New research questions
The results raise several research questions that warrant further investigation.
One concerns the absence of economic gains among men. Men show increases in religious intensity and doctrinal strictness, and some evidence of behavioral change, yet these shifts do not translate into higher earnings or employment. Understanding why men do not convert religious transformation into economic gains remains an open puzzle.
A second question concerns the durability and scaling of the gains experienced by women. Long-term follow-up is needed to assess whether improvements in earnings and business outcomes persist, grow, or attenuate over time, and whether similar effects would arise in other settings or denominations.
A third avenue for research concerns the broader political and social implications of rapid religious expansion. The movement influences social norms, gender roles, and political attitudes, and future work could examine whether the same network structures that support women’s businesses also shape civic engagement and political participation.
5. Dissemination and collaboration
The project group has actively disseminated the preliminary findings. Presentations have been completed at HKU Business School (Hong Kong), Monash University (Melbourne), Norwegian School of Economics (Bergen), National University of Singapore, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm University, Umeå University, Università Cattolica (Milan), and UNSW Sydney, with further seminars planned. A working paper is being prepared and will be circulated widely and submitted to a leading journal upon completion.
In addition, the team has engaged with local research staff and survey firms, building capacity for experimental work in similar institutional settings. Overall, the project combines rigorous scientific research with outreach to both academic and practitioner audiences and generates new insights into how religious movements shape economic and social outcomes in contemporary Africa.