Organized crime and citizens' trust in the state

Three developments currently evolve in parallel in Swedish society. First, an unprecedented rise in organized crime that significantly challenges the state’s monopoly of violence; second, widespread assaults by criminal networks on the ability of public agencies to exercise their authority free from undue influence and threat; and third, the deepening influence of parallel structures of governance emerging from the same criminal networks. In spite of the gravity of the challenge, we currently lack comprehensive knowledge on the consequences it has for citizens’ political attitudes and engagement with the state and how this varies across crime-affected and non-affected areas. This project seeks to address this gap by examining how organized crime shapes i) citizens’ trust in state institutions ii) their willingness to comply with rules and regulations set by state, and iii) citizen submission to alternative sources of authority beyond the state. The project takes an inter-disciplinary approach, drawing insights from political science, conflict research, criminology and psychology. It will map how citizen-state relations change in the wake of surging organized crime, and unpack heterogeneity in citizens’ response whereby some may become more supportive of the state, while others withdraw from the social contract. The project combines observational analyses, experimental approaches and focus-group interviews to identify causal effects and the mechanisms underpinning these.