The paradox of independence: dependence at the time of independence
When new states become independent, the paradox of independence can arise. It means that when states become independent, they are sensitive to external influences and ideas, which creates dependence on other states and international organizations. The outcome is an independent state that is dependent on the environment.
This book project will finish previous projects' work to theoretically explain and empirically examine the independence paradox, its existence, mechanisms and relevance. The purpose is to provide new knowledge about new states' conditions and political development.
A planned monograph will analyze whether ideas of political institutions spread between states in different networks and how this diffusion affects new states when they form their political institutions at the time of independence. The project will be unique by studying how the spread of institutional ideas occurs in several networks and influences the formation of political institutions.
The project is important for two reasons. First, it draws attention to the dependence relationships that form new states and influence their development. Since most of today's states have become independent since 1816, the project will provide an increased understanding of relationships between and development in most states. Second, the project maps the spread of institutional ideas in a new way, raising awareness of how states influence each other through diffusion in networks.
This book project will finish previous projects' work to theoretically explain and empirically examine the independence paradox, its existence, mechanisms and relevance. The purpose is to provide new knowledge about new states' conditions and political development.
A planned monograph will analyze whether ideas of political institutions spread between states in different networks and how this diffusion affects new states when they form their political institutions at the time of independence. The project will be unique by studying how the spread of institutional ideas occurs in several networks and influences the formation of political institutions.
The project is important for two reasons. First, it draws attention to the dependence relationships that form new states and influence their development. Since most of today's states have become independent since 1816, the project will provide an increased understanding of relationships between and development in most states. Second, the project maps the spread of institutional ideas in a new way, raising awareness of how states influence each other through diffusion in networks.
Final report
Background
The aim of this project has been to gain a deeper understanding of the paradox of independence. When new states become independent, they can become dependent on other states. Previous studies have noted this paradox for specific cases. However, previous research has not explored the frequency at which the paradox occurs or its significance for the development of new states. The project has therefore studied new states since 1800 to analyze the occurrence, relevance and significance of the paradox. The empirical material has been compiled into a new comparative database. With this material, the project has studied the paradox of independence from two aspects. The first aspect is the autonomy of states to make decisions on domestic, foreign, and financial issues. The second aspect is the dependence of new states on other states through democratic diffusion, which is related to democratization in newly established states.
The project has included a more extended, coherent stay abroad and resulted in a book manuscript, drafts of two article manuscripts and four research applications to enable future collaborations. The publications from the project will be published later with open access.
Results and publications
The project’s empirical analyses yield five main results. The first result is that the independence paradox occurs more frequently than previously assumed. Even if new states have been internationally recognized and classified as independent states in research, the paradox arises in the majority of new states at the time of their independence. With time as an independent state, dependence on other states decreases. Not least during the second and third years as an independent state, the paradox becomes less prevalent. For some states, however, the dependence persists for a longer period and becomes more entrenched. This result contributes to our understanding of what it means to become an independent state.
The second result is that the paradox is a general phenomenon in new states. The paradox occurs in various contexts and is not confined to a specific group of new states. For example, decision-making autonomy is not linked to how processes establish new states. However, limitations in autonomy are less prevalent in larger states (in terms of population size) that have been formed through secession in a region with a high proportion of autonomous states.
Third, new states are more affected by democratic diffusion at the time of their independence than later. Democratic diffusion is a form of dependency on the environment where ideas spread from other states to a new state, influencing democratization within the country. Although this influence is most substantial when the new state is formed, there is a strong effect during the first 20 years as an independent state. The diffusion analyses also reveal that new states are part of several overlapping networks that reinforce each other's diffusion effects. These effects are observed at both the aggregate level (level of democracy) and the disaggregated level (democratic institutions). These results contribute to research on democratic diffusion.
The fourth result from the study's analyses is that the level of decision-making autonomy has a positive impact on the likelihood of a democratic regime being established in the newly formed state. This effect does not decrease as the states get older. However, the occurrence of decision-making autonomy does not have the same effect; the effects are linked to the level of autonomy in decision-making. The third and fourth results, together, indicate the significance of the paradox for the political development of new states in terms of democratization.
Finally, an important result is that the two aspects of the paradox (decision-making autonomy and democratic diffusion) do not tend to influence each other. For example, decision-making autonomy does not have a moderating effect on the importance of democratic diffusion. The new states also combine the two dimensions in different ways. For example, some states have decision-making autonomy but are still influenced by democratic diffusion, while others lack decision-making autonomy despite being affected by democratic diffusion.
The project and its results will be reported in a research monograph. The grant has provided excellent opportunities for coherent writing time over an extended period. These opportunities have been used to write a book manuscript. There is currently a book manuscript that, after editing and language review in the fall of 2025, will be completed and submitted to an international publisher. The goal is to publish the book in 2026. In addition to the book manuscript, materials for two article manuscripts have also been compiled. These will be finalized and submitted for review to international journals in 2026. All publications will be published with open access.
Additional outputs from the project
The empirical work has used material from a database developed before and during the project. The database contains, among other things, information on how states have been formed, conditions in new states and decision-making autonomy, together with data that enables diffusion analyses. This database offers opportunities for further empirical analysis in future studies. The database will be made available in connection with the book publication.
New research questions
The study's analyses raise new questions that require continued or in-depth studies to be answered. A fundamental question for more in-depth studies is how the mechanisms of the paradox work. The analyses have concluded that new states often become dependent on other states after gaining independence. However, they provide limited knowledge about the processes that maintain this dependence, as well as the actors to whom the dependence arises. This lack of knowledge also raises questions about whether the mechanisms of the paradox vary across different contexts and whether there are similarities that persist regardless of context. A related question is why the paradox arises for some new states, while others become independent at the time of independence. The analyses carried out in the project partially answer the question. However, the question requires more systematic analyses in order to be answered more satisfactorily and comprehensively. Another question is how the paradox ends for new states. In addition to descriptive analyses that identify when the paradox regarding decision-making autonomy ends, the analyses in the project do not address the cessation of the paradox. However, it would make a significant contribution to understanding more about the cessation of the paradox.
New collaborations
The project included a longer, more coherent visit to Åbo Akademi University in March-April 2025. The Department of Political Science and the Social Science Research Institute (Samforsk) at the university offered an excellent writing environment. During that period, I participated in the everyday life of the units, which provided opportunities for informal discussions and collaborations. In the spring of 2025, four research applications were submitted for future research collaboration with researchers at Åbo Akademi University. Additionally, plans are in place for future publication projects and research initiatives.
In connection with the publication of the research monograph, information about the project will be disseminated as part of the marketing association, together with popular science articles.
The aim of this project has been to gain a deeper understanding of the paradox of independence. When new states become independent, they can become dependent on other states. Previous studies have noted this paradox for specific cases. However, previous research has not explored the frequency at which the paradox occurs or its significance for the development of new states. The project has therefore studied new states since 1800 to analyze the occurrence, relevance and significance of the paradox. The empirical material has been compiled into a new comparative database. With this material, the project has studied the paradox of independence from two aspects. The first aspect is the autonomy of states to make decisions on domestic, foreign, and financial issues. The second aspect is the dependence of new states on other states through democratic diffusion, which is related to democratization in newly established states.
The project has included a more extended, coherent stay abroad and resulted in a book manuscript, drafts of two article manuscripts and four research applications to enable future collaborations. The publications from the project will be published later with open access.
Results and publications
The project’s empirical analyses yield five main results. The first result is that the independence paradox occurs more frequently than previously assumed. Even if new states have been internationally recognized and classified as independent states in research, the paradox arises in the majority of new states at the time of their independence. With time as an independent state, dependence on other states decreases. Not least during the second and third years as an independent state, the paradox becomes less prevalent. For some states, however, the dependence persists for a longer period and becomes more entrenched. This result contributes to our understanding of what it means to become an independent state.
The second result is that the paradox is a general phenomenon in new states. The paradox occurs in various contexts and is not confined to a specific group of new states. For example, decision-making autonomy is not linked to how processes establish new states. However, limitations in autonomy are less prevalent in larger states (in terms of population size) that have been formed through secession in a region with a high proportion of autonomous states.
Third, new states are more affected by democratic diffusion at the time of their independence than later. Democratic diffusion is a form of dependency on the environment where ideas spread from other states to a new state, influencing democratization within the country. Although this influence is most substantial when the new state is formed, there is a strong effect during the first 20 years as an independent state. The diffusion analyses also reveal that new states are part of several overlapping networks that reinforce each other's diffusion effects. These effects are observed at both the aggregate level (level of democracy) and the disaggregated level (democratic institutions). These results contribute to research on democratic diffusion.
The fourth result from the study's analyses is that the level of decision-making autonomy has a positive impact on the likelihood of a democratic regime being established in the newly formed state. This effect does not decrease as the states get older. However, the occurrence of decision-making autonomy does not have the same effect; the effects are linked to the level of autonomy in decision-making. The third and fourth results, together, indicate the significance of the paradox for the political development of new states in terms of democratization.
Finally, an important result is that the two aspects of the paradox (decision-making autonomy and democratic diffusion) do not tend to influence each other. For example, decision-making autonomy does not have a moderating effect on the importance of democratic diffusion. The new states also combine the two dimensions in different ways. For example, some states have decision-making autonomy but are still influenced by democratic diffusion, while others lack decision-making autonomy despite being affected by democratic diffusion.
The project and its results will be reported in a research monograph. The grant has provided excellent opportunities for coherent writing time over an extended period. These opportunities have been used to write a book manuscript. There is currently a book manuscript that, after editing and language review in the fall of 2025, will be completed and submitted to an international publisher. The goal is to publish the book in 2026. In addition to the book manuscript, materials for two article manuscripts have also been compiled. These will be finalized and submitted for review to international journals in 2026. All publications will be published with open access.
Additional outputs from the project
The empirical work has used material from a database developed before and during the project. The database contains, among other things, information on how states have been formed, conditions in new states and decision-making autonomy, together with data that enables diffusion analyses. This database offers opportunities for further empirical analysis in future studies. The database will be made available in connection with the book publication.
New research questions
The study's analyses raise new questions that require continued or in-depth studies to be answered. A fundamental question for more in-depth studies is how the mechanisms of the paradox work. The analyses have concluded that new states often become dependent on other states after gaining independence. However, they provide limited knowledge about the processes that maintain this dependence, as well as the actors to whom the dependence arises. This lack of knowledge also raises questions about whether the mechanisms of the paradox vary across different contexts and whether there are similarities that persist regardless of context. A related question is why the paradox arises for some new states, while others become independent at the time of independence. The analyses carried out in the project partially answer the question. However, the question requires more systematic analyses in order to be answered more satisfactorily and comprehensively. Another question is how the paradox ends for new states. In addition to descriptive analyses that identify when the paradox regarding decision-making autonomy ends, the analyses in the project do not address the cessation of the paradox. However, it would make a significant contribution to understanding more about the cessation of the paradox.
New collaborations
The project included a longer, more coherent visit to Åbo Akademi University in March-April 2025. The Department of Political Science and the Social Science Research Institute (Samforsk) at the university offered an excellent writing environment. During that period, I participated in the everyday life of the units, which provided opportunities for informal discussions and collaborations. In the spring of 2025, four research applications were submitted for future research collaboration with researchers at Åbo Akademi University. Additionally, plans are in place for future publication projects and research initiatives.
In connection with the publication of the research monograph, information about the project will be disseminated as part of the marketing association, together with popular science articles.