The Neighborhood Revisited: Spatial polarization and social cohesion in contemporary Sweden
This program explores the extent to which spatial polarization produces a society that is increasingly polarized in attitudes, valuations, life styles and behaviour and, thus, less socially cohesive.
Our focus will be on neighbourhoods as locales for social interaction, socialization, identity formation, and for building social capital. If neighbourhoods, through a process of spatial sorting, come to consist of communities with very different social composition there is a risk that society-wide common values and solidarity between groups cannot be established. Spatial polarization can produce neighbourhoods with concentrations of socially marginalized individuals that provide poor contexts for social integration. The research program uses a novel approach to social classification based on life-course patterns in education, income, employment, and family formation.
Three broad questions will be addressed:
To what extent do individuals that follow similar life course trajectories tend to cluster into similar neighbourhoods?
To what extent are individuals’ attitudes formed in and influenced by their neighbourhood residential context?
To what extent are the adult life courses of children and adolescents influenced by their exposure to different types of neighbourhoods during childhood?
Further, the program considers how neighbourhoods change their composition over time and how such dynamics influence people’s attitudes and well-being.
Final report
The "Lyckliga gatan" project investigated spatial polarization and social cohesion in contemporary Sweden through three main research questions: (1) To what extent do individuals following similar life course trajectories clusters in similar neighborhoods? (2) To what extent are individuals' attitudes formed and influenced by their neighborhood context? (3) To what extent are children and adolescents influenced by their exposure to different types of neighborhoods during childhood?
The project combined innovative methodological approaches, using register data to analyze life course trajectories across multiple domains of life (income, housing, employment, family formation) and examining how these trajectories cluster geographically. A comprehensive neighborhood survey was conducted to investigate attitude formation in different residential contexts and we used interviews to follow up on residents’ perceptions of their neighborhoods.
Main Results and Conclusions
Life Course Trajectories and Spatial Sorting
The project successfully developed methods to classify nearly the entire Swedish adult population according to life course trajectories, using Latent Class Analysis (LCA) on register data. These trajectories clearly shows patterns along a distressed--affluent dimension. The results also confirm strong trajectory-based spatial sorting, with individuals following similar life courses clustering in similar neighborhoods.
Neighborhood Survey and Attitude Formation
The 2020 Neighborhood Survey (n=4,784) covered ten neighborhood types with oversampling of young individuals and individuals from migrant backgrounds. The survey gathered extensive data on housing histories, neighborhood perceptions, social interaction, and attitudes. This allowed examination of how spatial polarization relates to divergent attitudes and worldviews. Initial analyses show significant differences in neighborhood satisfaction, safety perceptions, and both attitudinal and behavioral patterns across different neighborhood types.
Neighborhood Effects on Children and Youth
Studies have shown that neighborhood effects on educational outcomes with small-scale neighborhood contexts being particularly important. Comparative research with Dutch data confirms that small-scale residential contexts affects educational outcomes, while earnings are more sensitive to large-scale contexts.
Other Key Findings
• Increasing income segregation: Analysis reveals growing polarization in income segregation since 1990, with increased proportions of individuals living in high-poverty areas. This trend is particularly visible in metropolitan regions where economic disparities have widened, creating more pronounced gaps between affluent and disadvantaged neighborhoods.
• Ethnic segregation patterns: While traditional dissimilarity indices show relatively stable ethnic segregation, the actual concentration of foreign-born residents in certain neighborhoods has substantially increased. This suggests that the most migrant-dense areas today have much higher proportions of foreign-born residents than in previous decades, despite stable overall segregation metrics.
• Housing tenure and segregation: Our research demonstrates strong linkages between neighborhood housing tenure composition and both ethnic and income segregation. Areas dominated by specific tenure types (rental, cooperative, ownership) show distinctive patterns of social composition, indicating that housing market structures significantly influence who can access different neighborhoods.
• Neighborhood stability: Approximately 80% of neighborhoods maintain stable trajectory types over time, indicating strong persistence in socio-spatial patterns. The remaining trajectories show either emergence of new elite areas, aging population patterns, or downward socioeconomic trajectories, with notably no trajectory path from vulnerable to socioeconomically stronger areas.
• Micro-level mobility patterns: Individual-level data reveals that most people who grow up in high-poverty neighborhoods eventually move out during early adulthood. However, those remaining in these areas exhibit particularly vulnerable characteristics, including lower educational achievement, early family formation, higher welfare dependency, and lower earnings.
• Same-sex couple segregation: Clear patterns of life-style segregation emerges for same-sex couples, with male same-sex couples showing a tendency to concentrate in or adjacent to distressed areas. This finding challenges some assumptions about LGBTQ+ residential preferences and highlights the complexity of identity-based spatial sorting.
• Gender-related spatial variations: An analysis of local gender patterns demonstrates significant geographical variation in gender equality across Sweden, contrary to assumptions of a uniform national gender patterns. These differences manifest in varying patterns of gendered educational attainment, labor market participation, parental and care leave use across different neighborhood types.
• Qualitative insights from interviews: In-depth interviews with residents in different neighborhood types reveal how trajectory composition is reflected in narratives and life outlooks. Residents in different areas articulate distinct understandings of their neighborhoods and future possibilities, with clear differences in how young people envision their life paths based on where they grew up.
• Neighborhood perception across generations: Qualitative findings show significant generational differences in neighborhood perception and attachment. Older residents often express stronger neighborhood attachment and social connections, while younger residents more frequently report intentions to move and weaker local social ties, particularly in more disadvantaged areas.
• COVID-19 spatial disparities: Research on the pandemic revealed clear spatial patterns in COVID-19 mortality that aligned with pre-existing social vulnerabilities. Residential density, housing conditions, and socioeconomic factors all contributed to differential impacts across neighborhood types, further highlighting patterns of spatial inequality.
• Neighborhood effects on social trust: Analysis indicates that trust levels vary significantly across neighborhood types, with contextual factors having different impacts in different residential settings. Interestingly, ethnic diversity was found to be more challenging for social trust in resource-rich locations than tan in urban deprived areas.
• Living in different neighborhood types is associated with different levels of subjective well-being, contact with neighbors, residential preferences and social trust. Such patterns vary by tenure type, stage in the life course and personality traits.
Significance for Research and Society
The project provides unprecedented insights into the mechanisms of spatial polarization in Sweden. By examining the relationship between life course trajectories and geographical clustering, the research offers a more nuanced understanding of segregation processes than traditional analyses focused on single dimensions (e.g., income or ethnicity).
The findings have significant societal implications, highlighting how spatial sorting can reinforce social divisions and potentially threaten social cohesion. The research on neighborhood effects on children and youth provides valuable knowledge for policy interventions aimed at reducing inequality of opportunity.
The trajectory-based approach developed in this project represents a methodological innovation that can have future applications in studies of how individual life courses, spatial contexts, and social attitudes interact.
Method Development and Application
A key methodological achievement was the development of techniques for modeling life course trajectories using Latent Class Analysis on register data. This approach allowed for:
• Classification of 15-year life phases (ages 15-99) for cohorts born 1905-1989
• Identification of distinct trajectory types across different life stages
• Analysis of spatial clustering based on these trajectory types
The project also implemented a stratified sampling approach for the Neighborhood Survey to ensure proper representation of different neighborhood types.
The methodologies developed have already led to several spin-off projects, including successful grant applications to the ERC, Swedish Research Council, and Forte.
Publication Strategy and Dissemination
The project has generated a substantial publication output, with over 50 peer-reviewed articles in international journals. Research results have been presented at major international conferences including the European Social Science History Conference, Population Association of America annual meetings, European Population Conference, Nordic Political Science Congress, and Annual meetings of the American Geographers.
The COVID-19 pandemic, which emerged during the project period, provided an opportunity for researchers to study another dimension of social and spatial polarization, resulting in publications in top journals and contributions to the Swedish Corona Commission.
Future Research Directions
The project has generated several promising directions for future research:
1. Deeper analysis of the relationship between neighborhood trajectory composition and attitude formation using the survey data
2. Further study of how life course trajectories are spatially distributed, combining register data and qualitative methods
3. Investigation of neighborhood effects on children from disadvantaged backgrounds
4. Exploration of immigrant integration processes from a trajectory perspective
Several spin-off projects have already secured funding, including grants for studying inequality and disparity among the descendants of immigrants and applications concerning segregation research.
The program has established a strong foundation for continued research on spatial polarization and social cohesion, with unique data resources and innovative methodological approaches that will benefit future studies in this field.
The project combined innovative methodological approaches, using register data to analyze life course trajectories across multiple domains of life (income, housing, employment, family formation) and examining how these trajectories cluster geographically. A comprehensive neighborhood survey was conducted to investigate attitude formation in different residential contexts and we used interviews to follow up on residents’ perceptions of their neighborhoods.
Main Results and Conclusions
Life Course Trajectories and Spatial Sorting
The project successfully developed methods to classify nearly the entire Swedish adult population according to life course trajectories, using Latent Class Analysis (LCA) on register data. These trajectories clearly shows patterns along a distressed--affluent dimension. The results also confirm strong trajectory-based spatial sorting, with individuals following similar life courses clustering in similar neighborhoods.
Neighborhood Survey and Attitude Formation
The 2020 Neighborhood Survey (n=4,784) covered ten neighborhood types with oversampling of young individuals and individuals from migrant backgrounds. The survey gathered extensive data on housing histories, neighborhood perceptions, social interaction, and attitudes. This allowed examination of how spatial polarization relates to divergent attitudes and worldviews. Initial analyses show significant differences in neighborhood satisfaction, safety perceptions, and both attitudinal and behavioral patterns across different neighborhood types.
Neighborhood Effects on Children and Youth
Studies have shown that neighborhood effects on educational outcomes with small-scale neighborhood contexts being particularly important. Comparative research with Dutch data confirms that small-scale residential contexts affects educational outcomes, while earnings are more sensitive to large-scale contexts.
Other Key Findings
• Increasing income segregation: Analysis reveals growing polarization in income segregation since 1990, with increased proportions of individuals living in high-poverty areas. This trend is particularly visible in metropolitan regions where economic disparities have widened, creating more pronounced gaps between affluent and disadvantaged neighborhoods.
• Ethnic segregation patterns: While traditional dissimilarity indices show relatively stable ethnic segregation, the actual concentration of foreign-born residents in certain neighborhoods has substantially increased. This suggests that the most migrant-dense areas today have much higher proportions of foreign-born residents than in previous decades, despite stable overall segregation metrics.
• Housing tenure and segregation: Our research demonstrates strong linkages between neighborhood housing tenure composition and both ethnic and income segregation. Areas dominated by specific tenure types (rental, cooperative, ownership) show distinctive patterns of social composition, indicating that housing market structures significantly influence who can access different neighborhoods.
• Neighborhood stability: Approximately 80% of neighborhoods maintain stable trajectory types over time, indicating strong persistence in socio-spatial patterns. The remaining trajectories show either emergence of new elite areas, aging population patterns, or downward socioeconomic trajectories, with notably no trajectory path from vulnerable to socioeconomically stronger areas.
• Micro-level mobility patterns: Individual-level data reveals that most people who grow up in high-poverty neighborhoods eventually move out during early adulthood. However, those remaining in these areas exhibit particularly vulnerable characteristics, including lower educational achievement, early family formation, higher welfare dependency, and lower earnings.
• Same-sex couple segregation: Clear patterns of life-style segregation emerges for same-sex couples, with male same-sex couples showing a tendency to concentrate in or adjacent to distressed areas. This finding challenges some assumptions about LGBTQ+ residential preferences and highlights the complexity of identity-based spatial sorting.
• Gender-related spatial variations: An analysis of local gender patterns demonstrates significant geographical variation in gender equality across Sweden, contrary to assumptions of a uniform national gender patterns. These differences manifest in varying patterns of gendered educational attainment, labor market participation, parental and care leave use across different neighborhood types.
• Qualitative insights from interviews: In-depth interviews with residents in different neighborhood types reveal how trajectory composition is reflected in narratives and life outlooks. Residents in different areas articulate distinct understandings of their neighborhoods and future possibilities, with clear differences in how young people envision their life paths based on where they grew up.
• Neighborhood perception across generations: Qualitative findings show significant generational differences in neighborhood perception and attachment. Older residents often express stronger neighborhood attachment and social connections, while younger residents more frequently report intentions to move and weaker local social ties, particularly in more disadvantaged areas.
• COVID-19 spatial disparities: Research on the pandemic revealed clear spatial patterns in COVID-19 mortality that aligned with pre-existing social vulnerabilities. Residential density, housing conditions, and socioeconomic factors all contributed to differential impacts across neighborhood types, further highlighting patterns of spatial inequality.
• Neighborhood effects on social trust: Analysis indicates that trust levels vary significantly across neighborhood types, with contextual factors having different impacts in different residential settings. Interestingly, ethnic diversity was found to be more challenging for social trust in resource-rich locations than tan in urban deprived areas.
• Living in different neighborhood types is associated with different levels of subjective well-being, contact with neighbors, residential preferences and social trust. Such patterns vary by tenure type, stage in the life course and personality traits.
Significance for Research and Society
The project provides unprecedented insights into the mechanisms of spatial polarization in Sweden. By examining the relationship between life course trajectories and geographical clustering, the research offers a more nuanced understanding of segregation processes than traditional analyses focused on single dimensions (e.g., income or ethnicity).
The findings have significant societal implications, highlighting how spatial sorting can reinforce social divisions and potentially threaten social cohesion. The research on neighborhood effects on children and youth provides valuable knowledge for policy interventions aimed at reducing inequality of opportunity.
The trajectory-based approach developed in this project represents a methodological innovation that can have future applications in studies of how individual life courses, spatial contexts, and social attitudes interact.
Method Development and Application
A key methodological achievement was the development of techniques for modeling life course trajectories using Latent Class Analysis on register data. This approach allowed for:
• Classification of 15-year life phases (ages 15-99) for cohorts born 1905-1989
• Identification of distinct trajectory types across different life stages
• Analysis of spatial clustering based on these trajectory types
The project also implemented a stratified sampling approach for the Neighborhood Survey to ensure proper representation of different neighborhood types.
The methodologies developed have already led to several spin-off projects, including successful grant applications to the ERC, Swedish Research Council, and Forte.
Publication Strategy and Dissemination
The project has generated a substantial publication output, with over 50 peer-reviewed articles in international journals. Research results have been presented at major international conferences including the European Social Science History Conference, Population Association of America annual meetings, European Population Conference, Nordic Political Science Congress, and Annual meetings of the American Geographers.
The COVID-19 pandemic, which emerged during the project period, provided an opportunity for researchers to study another dimension of social and spatial polarization, resulting in publications in top journals and contributions to the Swedish Corona Commission.
Future Research Directions
The project has generated several promising directions for future research:
1. Deeper analysis of the relationship between neighborhood trajectory composition and attitude formation using the survey data
2. Further study of how life course trajectories are spatially distributed, combining register data and qualitative methods
3. Investigation of neighborhood effects on children from disadvantaged backgrounds
4. Exploration of immigrant integration processes from a trajectory perspective
Several spin-off projects have already secured funding, including grants for studying inequality and disparity among the descendants of immigrants and applications concerning segregation research.
The program has established a strong foundation for continued research on spatial polarization and social cohesion, with unique data resources and innovative methodological approaches that will benefit future studies in this field.