The research project "The limits to growth in a sustainable society: Energy use and area requirements in early modern Sweden" has examined the energy use and associated area requirements in Sweden during the so-called Early Modern Period (1500-1800). Specifically, we have quantified and explained energy use, broadly defined as fuel inputs to the manufacturing industry and the households, along with food requirements for labour and households. Since the period of study precedes the era of fossil fuels these energy requirements were ultimately met by an energy and food production system based on photosynthesis. The energy system and the economic system were therefore dependent on available productive land. Since productive land is roughly fixed, as opposed to other forms of real capital, the system exhibited limits to growth. The project therefore, and in addition to the energy estimates, also has estimated the area requirements. The scope of the study programme has covered the evolution of manufacturing industry and population growth in both a chronological and spatial perspective. A major advantage has been the rich availability of hitherto unexplored archival sources, covering foremost fuel consumption in the important metal industries. This attribute should assist international scholars in interpreting the European growth miracle during the 19th century as an ecological transition, which bearing to both globally skewed income distribution and welfare as well as greenhouse gas emissions.

Specific Study Objectives
Our research project has focused on three distinct and complementary areas of study covering several aspects of the historical economic and social development of the Swedish energy system and economic life from about 1600 to 1920. The research questions have been the following: (a) How large was the fuel consumption in manufacturing and what land area requirements does this imply over time? (b) How large was the household fuel consumption and what land area requirements does this imply over time, given population growth and consumption of coal from the 1850s? (c) What was the combined land area requirement over time and how can savings on land, due to fossil fuels, explain modern economic growth?

The project has been implemented within the research plan, focused on gathering for the project necessary empirical data. This task has shown to be more time-consuming than planned, partly because of important findings, which has affected the publication time-plan. Resulting in two of four yet-non-publicised manuscripts. However, the projects main aim to create a empirical data-base of the Swedish energy consumption and areal requirements in early modern time. Energy consumption and areal requirements at parish-level for five benchmarks during the years 1570, 1630, 1690, 1750 and 1810 has been estimated. In relation to newly finished work on Swedish agriculture production during the early modern period by Andersson-Palm we chose to do the benchmarks analysis. This opened possibilities to estimate household food consumption regarding to parish-level and aggregated data for Sweden. Combining the food consumption data with our own estimates of the industrial energy consumption and the area requirements for parish-level, gave a possibility to study regional and local aspects of limitations of the energy system in a perspective of sustainable growth.

1. The Fuel Consumption and its area requirements in the metal industries
The project has estimated the energy consumption (wood and fuel) based on archive studies (National Archives, Board of Mines) and calculations of total metal production (iron, copper and silver). The energy consumption has been estimated for the whole production line. From mining to the finished products of the Iron works. The estimations also include hydropower consumption, to be able to compare with modern energy estimations (from year 1800 and onwards). All estimations have been calculated at parish-level.

2. The Household fuel and food consumption and its area requirements

Regarding the households the project has estimated fuel (wood) consumption for heating and buildings (house, fencing etc). Calculations of food production and its energy are based on Andersson-Palms project on agricultural production at parish-level in early modern time. The areal requirements were also estimated based on above referred energy consumption.

3. Combining the manufacturing industry and household energy and area requirements

By combining the data for the household food- and wood consumption with the industrial energy consumption and area requirements, the project has generated an empirical database for energy consumption of Swedish parishes, the years 1570, 1630, 1690, 1750 and 1810. The data are the base for performed estimates and analysis of the energy consumption and its areal requirements. To be able to link the early modern data with national estimates of energy consumption the project has estimated energy consumption in the service- sector (private and public). The methodology for this estimation is the same as the methodology used in estimations during the nineteenth century.

The presented empirical work have been analysed within current international research debates regarding the implications of the energy systems for the modern economical growth during the 19th century. In other words, did the organic energy system limited modern economic growth?


Results

The results and the analysis of the Swedish energy system during early modern time can be divided in three levels, where the project has generated results. 1, The national level, to be able to study the aggregated development. One example is the relation between GDP-development and energy consumption. 2, The regional level. 3, The local level. Both are central to be able to study the dynamics of the areal-based production of the energy system. This line of study creates the possibilities to assess for growth regarding industrial production and population development.

At the national level the following results are here presented:

o We have created an empirical database (1550000 observations) for studies of the Swedish energy consumption ant its areal requirements in early modern time.
o Analysis shows increasing total energy consumption the period 1570-1810. We also see a reallocation in different sectors shares of energy consumption over time. The industrial sectors share increases until 1750. Thereafter, the study shows stagnation in the industrial energy consumption, between 1750 and 1810. This can be explained by the growth of population and households.
o If we look at the per capita energy consumption, the total energy consumption increases until 1750. Thereafter, the results show decreasing development until 1810. From a sector level, this is explained by the per capita energy consumption of the households, which are stagnating between the years 1750-1810. Also, the industry is decreasing its per capita energy consumption, at the same period of time. During those years, the Swedish economy, in GDP terms, shows a stagnating development. This together indicates, a limitation of energy consumption in Sweden from 1750s.
o Estimations of energy intensity shows an increasing energy intensity during 1570-1810, which is interesting though more modern analysis displays a decreasing energy intensity in Sweden from the beginning of the 19th century.
o The estimations of the early modern energy consumptions have also generated a database to study quality of energy consumption estimates during the 19th century Sweden. By utilizing the projects empirical data, we have conducted alternative estimations of the Swedish energy consumption in the 19th century. This estimation shows that previous estimation has under-estimated the industrial energy consumption, especially during the first half oft the 19th century.

To be able to study the dynamics of the Swedish energy system, analysis of energy consumptions and areal requirements has been done at regional and local levels:

o From 1630 Swedish parishes with a industrial production shows a significant specialisation regarding to per capita areal used for food production, this compared to non-industrial parishes. This result increases our understanding of the need of national and inter-regional trade.
o Further analysis, shows that, in general, parishes with industry are not self-sufficient regarding food production, after 1690. This co-insists with the relatively strong development of the Swedish iron industry, 1630-1690. Non-industrial parishes were, in general, self-sufficient regarding food production in this period of time. An exception is the year 1690, when the whole nation shows decreasing food production.
o At the Jurisdictional district -level we also has preformed analysis of the level of self-sufficiency. Here as well, we can see a difference between industrial regions and non-industrial regions. This result indicates the historical need of national and regional trade of food.
o If we look at population growth, parishes with a historical localisation of industry show a stronger growth of population than non-industrial parishes. This is the case until 1750. In the period from 1750 until 1810 the development in population growth changes. During that period, the parishes that were industrial in 1810 but non-industrial 1750, experienced the fastest growth in population. This indicates a change in localisation of industrial plants and economic growth, which coinciding the decrees in per capita energy consumption shown in in the national analysis.
o The project has also performed analysis at the regional and local level, regarding areal requirements. The results shows that regions and parishes wit metal industries were limited by accessible woodland and its possibilities to sustainable development. With regard to the international debate the project has done a counterfactual analysis of the possibilities for a Swedish industrial breakthrough, without making use of fossil fuels. In other words, could Swedish iron production increase as rapid as English iron production when coal was to be used in the end of the 18th century (the industrial revolution). This counterfactual analysis proves that kind of development, given the organic energy system Sweden had, made it impossible for the economy to change in that direction, without jeopardizing further generations' possibilities of energy consumption. In other words, that development would have led to massive de-forestation.

In summary, the project results show that energy per capita consumption decreases after 1750, with a stagnation of total industrial energy consumption. We also argue that at specialisation in production between industrial parishes and non-industrial parishes. Industrial parishes and regions were not self-sufficient in food production. The counterfactual analysis points out that industrialisation within the frame of organic economy were not possible. The need of woodland limited the growth in the early modern economy, before the transport revolution and the international trade development in the 19th century.

Publications (comments)
Because of the above-mentioned delays caused by the underestimated time-plan to finish the empirical database and the important empirical findings, the project is behind publication time schedule. Although, the project has up to now published two articles. Adding to this, two articles are in manuscript-form, which are about to be send to international journals.

The first published article, Lindmark and Andersson (2010), focuses on alternative estimates of household wood consumption. This study has also been a part of estimates and analysis of early modern household wood consumption in Sweden. The second publication, Lindmark and Acar (2014), builds indirectly on the new estimates of energy consumption in Sweden.

The first yet un-published paper (WP), Olsson Spjut and Lindmark, "Early modern energy in Sweden 1570-1810", will be presented at the "Swedish economic history meeting, October 8-10th 2015". The second working paper, Olsson Spjut and Lindmark, "New Estimates of Energy Consumption in Sweden during the Ninetheenth Century", are set to be published in an international journal.

Publications

Magnus Lindmark, Lars-Fredrik Andersson (2010), ”Household Firewood Consumption in Sweden during the Nineteenth Century”, Journal of Northern Studies, Nr 2, pp 55-78.

Magnus Lindmark, Sevile Acar (2014),”The environmental Kuznets curve and the Pasteur effect: environmental costs in Sweden 1850 – 2000” European Review of Economic History, 18 (3), pp. 306-323.

Forthcoming

Olsson Spjut, Magnus Lindmark (2015), ”Early modern energy in Sweden 1570-1810”, Working Paper in Economic History, Umeå University

Olsson Spjut, Magnus Lindmark(2015), ”New Estimates of Energy Consumption in Sweden during the Ninetheenth Century”, Working Paper in Economic History, Umeå University