Fertility intentions and fertility decline in Sweden
Over the past decade fertility rates in Sweden have declined somewhat unexpectedly. This development has occurred in tandem with even greater fertility declines in the other Nordic countries. Our project aims at investigating these puzzling developments in more detail and to explore the factors that may drive them. We use register-linked data of the new Swedish Generations and Gender Survey 2020 (GGS2020) and its predecessor, the GGS2012, to compare changes in fertility intentions of Swedish women and men over the recent period of fertility decline. We look at links between fertility intentions and women’s and men’s employment, education, and partnership life courses, and their attitudes and perception of their future to assess the role of structural and subjective factors in fertility intentions. We study the role of social differentials in these associations and their changes over time. Using the GGS2012 and linked register data that cover fertility outcomes in subsequent years we analyze whether fertility intentions voiced in 2012 were subsequently realized or not, and which factors that have contributed to different positive and negative outcomes. With both GGSs we furthermore investigate the extent to which rising insecurity and perceived uncertainties are related to recent fertility change by looking at the link between people’s assessment of recent societal transformations, recent crises and their fertility intentions.
Final report
Purpose and Implementation
Since 2010, fertility rates in Sweden have fallen almost continuously to unprecedented low levels. This decline has occurred across all socio-economic groups and regions of Sweden. Research has shown that the decrease in fertility is primarily due to a decline in first births among couples, rather than changes in couple formation (Cantalini, Ohlsson-Wijk and Andersson 2024). Furthermore, cohort trends in fertility by educational fields do not support structural assumptions for the decline (Gortfelder, Andersson and Neyer 2025). Conventional explanations for the fertility decline have fallen short of providing insight into these developments.
The purpose of this project was to explore the phenomenon from different angles. Guided by emerging theories of fertility decline, we focused on the roles of perceived uncertainties, trust, parenting attitudes, and subjective attributes in shaping fertility intentions. Our investigations were primarily based on the register-linked Swedish Generations and Gender Surveys of 2012 (GGS2012) and 2021 (GGS2021), as these surveys are the best source for comparing changes in fertility intentions and newly emerging childbearing considerations (Neyer, Andersson, and Dahlberg, 2024). For additional research, we also used register data and other surveys.
The Five Most Significant Results
Our investigations produced unexpected and novel insights into Swedish fertility development. They indicate that childbearing considerations, intentions, and behaviors are changing in Sweden in a profound and complex way.
Decline of Fertility Intentions
Not only births, but also intentions to have a child have markedly declined across almost all groups in society. In 2021 GGS respondents were substantially less inclined to consider a child and those who did were more often unsure than GGS respondents in 2012. The results indicate a growing tendency among both men and women to remain childfree. Because only a fraction of positive intentions are ever realized, the decline in fertility in Sweden is likely to continue (Neyer, Lai and Andersson 2024).
Economic Uncertainties and Fertility Intentions
Previous experiences of unemployment had no impact on Swedish women’s and men’s fertility intentions, neither at the beginning of the fertility decline nor a decade later. However, having an uncertain employment status was positively related to fertility intentions in 2012, but negatively in 2021. This reversal in the relationship between current employment uncertainty and fertility intentions suggests that employment (in)security has become a more decisive factor in childbearing decisions (Kim, Lai and Neyer 2024).
Global Uncertainties and Fertility Intentions
Analyses of a newly implemented module on global uncertainties in the Swedish GGS2021 revealed that individuals who are worried about global developments are less likely to intend to have a child compared to those who worry little or not at all. However, individual global threats, such as climate change or terrorism, are not associated with lower fertility intentions; on the contrary, they may even partly increase them. These findings support theoretical assumptions about the growing influence of subjective perceptions and assessments of non-personal uncertainties in fertility matters (Neyer, Andersson G., Dahlberg, Ohlsson-Wijk, Andersson L. and Billingsley 2022).
Social and Institutional Trust as Resilience against Perceived Uncertainties
Contrary to findings in other countries, social trust does not elevate fertility intentions in Sweden. Institutional trust, however, turns out to be positively related to fertility intentions. Although social and institutional trust slightly reduce individuals' perception of global uncertainties, they do not serve as a mediator to substantially decrease the negative association between uncertainties and fertility intentions. These findings may be attributed to the well-functioning Swedish welfare state and the high levels of trust that Swedes have in their institutions and fellow citizens (Gortfelder, Neyer and Anderson 2024).
Parental Attitudes, Subjective Attributes, and Fertility Intentions
Using a new module on intensive parenting implemented in the Swedish GGS2021, we find that individuals who embrace intensive parenting attitudes are more likely to intend to have a child than others (Billingsley, Möllborn and Neyer 2024/2025). The unexpected positive relationship between intensive parenting attitudes and fertility intentions may be the result of reversed causality. It could also be that the Swedish family-policy system, which alleviates care burdens and promotes a gender-equal division of work and care, enables intensive parenting without overburdening parents.
Discussion of Research Findings and New Research Questions
Our research results represent a step forward in unraveling the puzzle of the unexpected fertility decline in Sweden and other countries. They provide some empirical support for the newly adapted theories of perceived uncertainties, intensive parenting, and subjective shifts in fertility research. Given current global developments, they suggest that a reversal of the fertility decline is unlikely in the foreseeable future. However, the results are not as clear-cut as the theories predict, nor as the ongoing fertility decline might lead one to conclude. Rather, they raise new research questions, calling for further investigations, the development of comprehensive internationally comparative research infrastructures, and advanced methodologies. The challenge lies in answering why fertility has been declining simultaneously in post-industrial countries worldwide, identifying both globally shared and country-specific circumstances driving these developments, and determining the factors that influence the subjective shifts investigated in this project.
Dissemination of Research
All research findings were presented at peer-reviewed international and national conferences, workshops, webinars, and other scientific meetings. All research findings are, or will be, published open-access in scientific, peer-reviewed journals. Preliminary findings or pre-publication papers are made available through the Stockholm University Research Reports in Demography Series, accessible at www.suda.su.se and the Stockholm University Research Repository at su.figshare.com. The project team also coordinated workshops with other Nordic and international researchers working on fertility decline issues in their respective countries. Additionally, we successfully promoted the modules on global uncertainty, trust, and intensive parenting used in this project by presenting project results in webinars within the Generations and Gender Program. These modules will be included in the wave II questionnaire of the international Generations and Gender Surveys, enabling comparative research across a large number of countries in Europe and beyond. The findings of the project have also attracted widespread interest from the media and policymakers in Sweden and other countries.
Research Collaboration
The decline of fertility in many countries has spurred cross-country collaboration and research exchange, particularly with researchers from other Nordic countries, Italy, and Estonia.
Since 2010, fertility rates in Sweden have fallen almost continuously to unprecedented low levels. This decline has occurred across all socio-economic groups and regions of Sweden. Research has shown that the decrease in fertility is primarily due to a decline in first births among couples, rather than changes in couple formation (Cantalini, Ohlsson-Wijk and Andersson 2024). Furthermore, cohort trends in fertility by educational fields do not support structural assumptions for the decline (Gortfelder, Andersson and Neyer 2025). Conventional explanations for the fertility decline have fallen short of providing insight into these developments.
The purpose of this project was to explore the phenomenon from different angles. Guided by emerging theories of fertility decline, we focused on the roles of perceived uncertainties, trust, parenting attitudes, and subjective attributes in shaping fertility intentions. Our investigations were primarily based on the register-linked Swedish Generations and Gender Surveys of 2012 (GGS2012) and 2021 (GGS2021), as these surveys are the best source for comparing changes in fertility intentions and newly emerging childbearing considerations (Neyer, Andersson, and Dahlberg, 2024). For additional research, we also used register data and other surveys.
The Five Most Significant Results
Our investigations produced unexpected and novel insights into Swedish fertility development. They indicate that childbearing considerations, intentions, and behaviors are changing in Sweden in a profound and complex way.
Decline of Fertility Intentions
Not only births, but also intentions to have a child have markedly declined across almost all groups in society. In 2021 GGS respondents were substantially less inclined to consider a child and those who did were more often unsure than GGS respondents in 2012. The results indicate a growing tendency among both men and women to remain childfree. Because only a fraction of positive intentions are ever realized, the decline in fertility in Sweden is likely to continue (Neyer, Lai and Andersson 2024).
Economic Uncertainties and Fertility Intentions
Previous experiences of unemployment had no impact on Swedish women’s and men’s fertility intentions, neither at the beginning of the fertility decline nor a decade later. However, having an uncertain employment status was positively related to fertility intentions in 2012, but negatively in 2021. This reversal in the relationship between current employment uncertainty and fertility intentions suggests that employment (in)security has become a more decisive factor in childbearing decisions (Kim, Lai and Neyer 2024).
Global Uncertainties and Fertility Intentions
Analyses of a newly implemented module on global uncertainties in the Swedish GGS2021 revealed that individuals who are worried about global developments are less likely to intend to have a child compared to those who worry little or not at all. However, individual global threats, such as climate change or terrorism, are not associated with lower fertility intentions; on the contrary, they may even partly increase them. These findings support theoretical assumptions about the growing influence of subjective perceptions and assessments of non-personal uncertainties in fertility matters (Neyer, Andersson G., Dahlberg, Ohlsson-Wijk, Andersson L. and Billingsley 2022).
Social and Institutional Trust as Resilience against Perceived Uncertainties
Contrary to findings in other countries, social trust does not elevate fertility intentions in Sweden. Institutional trust, however, turns out to be positively related to fertility intentions. Although social and institutional trust slightly reduce individuals' perception of global uncertainties, they do not serve as a mediator to substantially decrease the negative association between uncertainties and fertility intentions. These findings may be attributed to the well-functioning Swedish welfare state and the high levels of trust that Swedes have in their institutions and fellow citizens (Gortfelder, Neyer and Anderson 2024).
Parental Attitudes, Subjective Attributes, and Fertility Intentions
Using a new module on intensive parenting implemented in the Swedish GGS2021, we find that individuals who embrace intensive parenting attitudes are more likely to intend to have a child than others (Billingsley, Möllborn and Neyer 2024/2025). The unexpected positive relationship between intensive parenting attitudes and fertility intentions may be the result of reversed causality. It could also be that the Swedish family-policy system, which alleviates care burdens and promotes a gender-equal division of work and care, enables intensive parenting without overburdening parents.
Discussion of Research Findings and New Research Questions
Our research results represent a step forward in unraveling the puzzle of the unexpected fertility decline in Sweden and other countries. They provide some empirical support for the newly adapted theories of perceived uncertainties, intensive parenting, and subjective shifts in fertility research. Given current global developments, they suggest that a reversal of the fertility decline is unlikely in the foreseeable future. However, the results are not as clear-cut as the theories predict, nor as the ongoing fertility decline might lead one to conclude. Rather, they raise new research questions, calling for further investigations, the development of comprehensive internationally comparative research infrastructures, and advanced methodologies. The challenge lies in answering why fertility has been declining simultaneously in post-industrial countries worldwide, identifying both globally shared and country-specific circumstances driving these developments, and determining the factors that influence the subjective shifts investigated in this project.
Dissemination of Research
All research findings were presented at peer-reviewed international and national conferences, workshops, webinars, and other scientific meetings. All research findings are, or will be, published open-access in scientific, peer-reviewed journals. Preliminary findings or pre-publication papers are made available through the Stockholm University Research Reports in Demography Series, accessible at www.suda.su.se and the Stockholm University Research Repository at su.figshare.com. The project team also coordinated workshops with other Nordic and international researchers working on fertility decline issues in their respective countries. Additionally, we successfully promoted the modules on global uncertainty, trust, and intensive parenting used in this project by presenting project results in webinars within the Generations and Gender Program. These modules will be included in the wave II questionnaire of the international Generations and Gender Surveys, enabling comparative research across a large number of countries in Europe and beyond. The findings of the project have also attracted widespread interest from the media and policymakers in Sweden and other countries.
Research Collaboration
The decline of fertility in many countries has spurred cross-country collaboration and research exchange, particularly with researchers from other Nordic countries, Italy, and Estonia.