Margareta Sollenberg

Mapping violence in Syria - filling the gap in the UCDP GED

The Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP) is a leading provider of data on organized violence. In 2010 UCDP advanced its data collection to violent daily data on georeferenced events (UCDP GED) as a supplement to the widely used datasets on conflict years. However, this work coincided with the outburst of one of the deadliest wars in the data, Syria. Coding a war of this magnitude and complexity required resources beyond what was available to UCDP. UCDP has therefore been unable to code the conflicts in Syria according to the same standards as other countries and the country has thus not been part of the released versions of UCDP GED. Syria will constitute the largest country subset of the UCDP GED, with over a third of all events in the world 2011-2015. Since Syria would thus heavily influence results from analyses made on the UCDP GED, it is critical to include the case. This requires that all relevant geographical locations and dates are represented and that the data is consistent both within the Syrian subset and with the rest of the data. UCDP has found a method to code Syria which is labor intensive, but which provides enough information. The purpose of the proposed project is thus to use this method to produce geo-referenced events for Syria for the period 2011-2016 in order to complete the UCDP GED, thereby providing the research community with an essential and complete data source for analysis of organized violence.
Final report
MAPPING VIOLENCE IN SYRIA – FILLING THE GAP IN THE UCDP GED (IN17-0514:1)


PROJECT AIMS AND DEVELOPMENT

The aim of this project was to produce detailed information for the research and policy community on organized violence in Syria, by coding all violent events that meet the inclusion criteria of the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), the world’s leading provider of data on organized violence. UCDP data on Syria had been incomplete (several years) or non-existent (e.g. 2014), and no other data source with equivalent data existed. The scale of violence in Syria had made data collection impossible, with serious consequences for research on Syria as well on global patterns of violence. With the inclusion of the Syria data, the UCDP provides a complete global picture of organized violence since 1989, and most importantly, the period since 2011, when the wars in Syria began.

The original plan had three parts: 1) to code Syrian events in 2014 using the source Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR), 2) to complement the coding of the years 2011-16 with additional sources, and 3) to explore the possibility to merge our data with a Syria dataset compiled by the Human Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG).

The aim has been followed throughout the grant period and the project is now finalized. Minor changes were made, e.g. the time plan and some of the contents (see further below).


PROJECT RESULTS

Both main tasks of the project, i.e. parts 1 and 2, have been concluded in line with its original aims. By the end of the project, i.e. mid-2020, we had released data up until 2019. The current version of the UCDP main dataset, UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset, UCDP GED, (version 20.1, see ucdp.uu.se), covers all events of organized violence for 1989-2019. Of the global total of 225 385 events, 60 775 took place in Syria, i.e. about 27 per cent. The relative importance of Syria is visible when looking at the period from 2011 when the Syrian wars began; for this period 128 601 events were coded globally, of which almost half were thus in Syria. For 2014, a particular focus in this project, 13 544 events were added which is almost twice as many events as all other conflict events in 2014 taken together (7 437).

The wars in Syria are unprecedented in modern times in terms of scope and fatalities. It is critical for any analysis employing global data on organized violence – where UCDP is the main data source – that the violence in Syria is covered with the same precision as all other UCDP data. The data released so far is preliminary and will be revised in accordance with an ongoing complementary project (IN19-0777:1) - see further below.


INFRASTRUCTURE USAGE AND RESEARCH

We anticipate wide usage within the greater research as well as policy community, in line with the usage of the UCDP infrastructure as a whole. The output of this project is an integral part of a larger data infrastructure, partly funded by previous RJ grants, and which is the core of UCDPs interaction with the research community, the main user base. The infrastructure reduces limitations for research questions to be asked – whether on the international, national or subnational level and regardless of time unit of analysis – by providing comprehensive global data on organized violence. Outside of academia, we have shared the Syria data with for example the World Bank; the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR); Chatham House; and, the Department of National Operations (NOA) of the Swedish Police.

The current project also feeds directly back to other UCDP data efforts. For example, actor descriptions, which was made on a previous RJ infrastructure grant (IN16-0690:1), can now be finalized for Syrian actors. The work has also led to recoding of violent events in neighboring countries as several actors, e.g. IS, are active beyond Syrian territory. An effort such as this one inevitably extends beyond the specific project and improves on UCDP data as a whole. Ultimately it improves the quality of research employing the data.


TECHNICAL AND METHODOLOGICAL PROBLEMS; DEVIATIONS FROM PLAN

There have been no major problems in the project execution. The project has followed the original plan, but two changes in relation to the application were made, one relating to the time plan and one to content.

Firstly, concerning the time plan, the work was to begin in January 2018 and finish by end-2019. Instead, the project began in earnest in mid-2018 and finalized by mid-2020, i.e. employing a two-year plan, but postponed (within the contract, as it allowed for spending through 2020). Two full-time assistants were to be employed for the project period. However, to maximize efficiency, we postponed the full start-up of the project to allow for project setup before the arrival of the assistants, and to recruit assistants with adequate background, including one fluent Arabic-speaker. The latter took extra time to recruit due to work permit issues. The delay also allowed us to recruit a qualified assistant from our Master graduates.

Secondly, a change of content was made. The plan centered on two main time-consuming tasks. The third and smaller task was to explore a potential data merge with a dataset on Syria, compiled by the Human Rights Data Analysis Group (HRDAG). After data scrutiny and discussions with HRDAG, we abandoned this plan as a lack of detail in their data prevented merging. We instead decided to focus on one of the sources they had used, the Violations Documentations Centre (VDC). Since the merging with VDC had to be done manually, it required more resources than allocated in the plan. We therefore applied for and received a grant for an extension for an additional year (IN19-0777:1). In addition to using VDC for 2013-18, the latter project also includes some coding of 2017-18. The extension thus replaced and expanded the third task. Since this was a smaller exploratory task and emphasis was on the two main tasks, the general project direction has not been altered.


INTEGRATION INTO ORGANIZATION AND MAINTENANCE

The Syria data is fully integrated into the UCDP database system and interface and this, in turn, is fully integrated in the organization. All current and future work is taking place within this technical environment which was partly created by earlier RJ grants and in operation since 2016. The technical maintenance of the interface is done by the central Uppsala University IT department, together with local UCDP staff. This work is funded by a permanent yearly grant from Uppsala University. The technical environment is thus stable. We estimate that we will be able to maintain and make basic upgrades of the infrastructure, including coding Syrian violence, within available resources in the coming 10-year period. The interface requires not only technical maintenance, but also constant improvement; our current financial situation allows for both in the future.

From 2020, the UCDP is a core member of a VR-funded national infrastructure, Research infrastructure for Democracy, Environment, Migration, Social policy, Conflict, and Representation (DEMSCORE). The UCDP infrastructure as a whole is thus integrated into a larger Swedish social science data infrastructure, which further adds to long-term perspectives and possibilities to consolidate the general standing of UCDP, and also provides an additional platform for data dissemination.


INFRASTRUCTURE ACCESSIBILITY AND OPEN ACCESS

All UCDP information, including the Syria data, is freely available from our website: ucdp.uu.se. The UCDP interface, UCDP Encyclopedia, (funded by IN14-0995:1), was launched in the spring of 2016 and offers an interactive and flexible platform for browsing and downloading any selection of data and texts on organized violence. Ready-made datasets in various formats can also be downloaded, including an API. The Syria data was fed into this already existing website. There are no restrictions for accessing the UCDP infrastructure, thus ensuring full open access. No registration is required and it is free of charge.


INTERNATIONAL COLLABORATION

The project has resulted in a new research collaboration with Professor Fiona Greenland at the Department of Sociology, University of Virginia, focusing on the mapping of cultural violence in Syria and the connection between cultural destruction and civilian targeting. The project, ‘Cultural Violence and Civilian Deaths’, where UCDP is included as a partner, received funding from the National Science Foundation (NSF) in 2020. We are also continuing our dialogue on Syria data with the HRDAG through one of their PI’s, Professor Anita Gohdes of the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin.


RESEARCH PUBLICATIONS BASED ON INFRASTRUCTURE

Since the project has recently finished, we have not yet produced research publications directly based on the infrastructure. The Syrian wars serve as a theme in an upcoming annual UCDP publication, e.g. Pettersson, T., N. Hawach, S. Davies, A. Deniz, G. Engström, S. Högbladh, M. Sollenberg & M. Öberg (forthcoming 2021). ”Organized Violence, 1989-2020 and the Syrian Civil War”, Journal of Peace Research 58(4): xxx-xxx. The new data has been incorporated in all new versions of UCDP datasets (see ucdp.uu.se). We have also covered Syria in some issues of the UCDP Bulletin, disseminated on our website (see https://www.pcr.uu.se/research/ucdp/publications/ucdp-bulletin/) as well as via social media (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram etc.). Once the final version of all data has been released, i.e. upon completion of the extension of the project (IN19-0777:1), we plan for at least one article on the Syrian war for a major peer-reviewed journal (e.g. Journal of Peace Research, Journal of Conflict Resolution, Conflict Management and Peace Science).


WEBSITE LINK

http://ucdp.uu.se
Grant administrator
Uppsala University
Reference number
IN17-0514:1
Amount
SEK 2,499,000.00
Funding
RJ Infrastructure for research
Subject
Other Social Sciences not elsewhere specified
Year
2017