New roles in a hostile world? How liberal states are changing their foreign policy in a new security environment
With an increasing level of confrontation in world politics, small liberal states face the challenge of balancing normative liberal beliefs against the need for military security. This challenge leads to potential role conflicts. In the proposed project, we consider such role conflicts in the five Nordic states, typical small liberal states that are challenged by the shifting world order. We approach potential role conflicts in the Nordic states in two ways. First, we describe how the foreign policy roles of the Nordic states have evolved in the new security landscape of Northern Europe over the last ten years. Second, we explain how these states balance their varied and potentially incompatible roles, in relation to both the overarching systemic changes and domestic opposition. These two aims are achieved through conducting elite interviews and analyzing foreign policy declarations and key speeches of leading politicians. The second aim more specifically makes use of a process-tracing approach in order to explain when and how role contestation has led to role change. Through these steps, we will gain important new knowledge of how the systemic transformation of the world order is challenging the existing roles of states, necessitating the reevaluation of their role locations and, in turn, their foreign policies.
Final report
Final report of the project “New roles in a hostile world? How small liberal states are changing their foreign policy in a new security environment”
Aims and implementation
In the application for funding of this project two aims were presented: 1) to describe how the foreign policy roles of the Nordic states have evolved in the new security landscape of Northern Europe over the last ten years; and 2) to explain how the Nordic states are balancing different, potentially incompatible, roles in relation to both overarching systemic change and domestic opposition. These aims have been consistent throughout the research process, and they have guided the work carried out in the project.
However, one thing that was impossible to know when the application was submitted was how dramatically the security situation in Northern Europe would deteriorate during the research process. In the application for funding in 2019 we argued that the security situation of the Nordic states had deteriorated already after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. Still, little did we know of how much worse the security situation would become. With Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Nordic states found themselves in a dramatically changed security environment.
The changed security environment has had a profound effect on the implementation of the research project as it became possible to observe almost from one day to another how the foreign and security policy roles of the Nordic states changed. The dramatic events thus provided us with an unwelcome but still useful opportunity to trace the processes of changed role conceptions in the Nordic states. The different responses from the Nordic states to the changed security situation resulted in a research strategy where we studied different thematic responses in different articles, where certain responses where relevant in some Nordic cases but not in others. Accordingly we studied the Finnish and Swedish NATO accession processes in one article, the role of the EU as a security provider in Danish, Finnish and Swedish foreign and security policy in another article, the changed Arctic roles in Danish, Finnish, Icelandic, Norwegian and Swedish foreign and security policy in a third article, and finally in a fourth article we could provide a general comparison of the different Nordic responses to the changed security situation. In addition to these publications, we have had the opportunity to develop our theoretical argument in a research monograph on Swedish grand strategy from the end of the Cold War up until the membership in NATO, with Nordic comparisons, as well as in an article on the changed structural conditions during the 1970s as a comparison to the current situation. In a sixth article, one of the participants in the project contributed with a meta-analysis of research on the roles played by the Nordic states in international politics from the 1960s up until our time. In addition to this we have written four policy briefs outlining case specific findings in a policy relevant way.
Results
In terms of results, the project has contributed significantly to the understanding of agency of small states, even in situations when the structural conditions become less permissive. 1/ Based on role theory, the project has developed novel theoretical models in order to understand both relevant dimensions of the political content in small state role playing in international politics, as well as to understand small state action strategies when the structural conditions change. 2/ Based on these models and based on extensive empirical studies, including elite interviews with leading diplomats and politicians as well as textual analysis of public records, we have been able to show how arguably similar states like the Nordics have approached a serious security situation in different ways. Even if their general patterns in terms of security policy cooperation with EU and NATO have converged over time, the Nordics have reached those converging positions with different pace, arguments and degree of domestic support. 3/ We have shown how such variation has resulted in different degrees of domestic contestation regarding the preferred foreign policy roles and, accordingly, different degrees of enactment of such roles.
Communication and deliveries
The results of the project have been communicated both in academic publications and different outreach activities. In terms of academic publications, we have written one research monograph, six academic articles, and one book chapter, and also presented our findings at eleven academic conferences (see below). All publications have been published open access. In addition to this we have devoted a considerable amount of time to participate in outreach activities both within and outside academia. In total we have given 16 public presentations based on the results from the project. We have presented the project and its results at foreign embassies, Almedalsveckan, the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Centre for Military Studies at Copenhagen University, to mention a few. We have also participated in media and commented on current international affairs based on the knowledge derived from the project.
Aims and implementation
In the application for funding of this project two aims were presented: 1) to describe how the foreign policy roles of the Nordic states have evolved in the new security landscape of Northern Europe over the last ten years; and 2) to explain how the Nordic states are balancing different, potentially incompatible, roles in relation to both overarching systemic change and domestic opposition. These aims have been consistent throughout the research process, and they have guided the work carried out in the project.
However, one thing that was impossible to know when the application was submitted was how dramatically the security situation in Northern Europe would deteriorate during the research process. In the application for funding in 2019 we argued that the security situation of the Nordic states had deteriorated already after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. Still, little did we know of how much worse the security situation would become. With Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Nordic states found themselves in a dramatically changed security environment.
The changed security environment has had a profound effect on the implementation of the research project as it became possible to observe almost from one day to another how the foreign and security policy roles of the Nordic states changed. The dramatic events thus provided us with an unwelcome but still useful opportunity to trace the processes of changed role conceptions in the Nordic states. The different responses from the Nordic states to the changed security situation resulted in a research strategy where we studied different thematic responses in different articles, where certain responses where relevant in some Nordic cases but not in others. Accordingly we studied the Finnish and Swedish NATO accession processes in one article, the role of the EU as a security provider in Danish, Finnish and Swedish foreign and security policy in another article, the changed Arctic roles in Danish, Finnish, Icelandic, Norwegian and Swedish foreign and security policy in a third article, and finally in a fourth article we could provide a general comparison of the different Nordic responses to the changed security situation. In addition to these publications, we have had the opportunity to develop our theoretical argument in a research monograph on Swedish grand strategy from the end of the Cold War up until the membership in NATO, with Nordic comparisons, as well as in an article on the changed structural conditions during the 1970s as a comparison to the current situation. In a sixth article, one of the participants in the project contributed with a meta-analysis of research on the roles played by the Nordic states in international politics from the 1960s up until our time. In addition to this we have written four policy briefs outlining case specific findings in a policy relevant way.
Results
In terms of results, the project has contributed significantly to the understanding of agency of small states, even in situations when the structural conditions become less permissive. 1/ Based on role theory, the project has developed novel theoretical models in order to understand both relevant dimensions of the political content in small state role playing in international politics, as well as to understand small state action strategies when the structural conditions change. 2/ Based on these models and based on extensive empirical studies, including elite interviews with leading diplomats and politicians as well as textual analysis of public records, we have been able to show how arguably similar states like the Nordics have approached a serious security situation in different ways. Even if their general patterns in terms of security policy cooperation with EU and NATO have converged over time, the Nordics have reached those converging positions with different pace, arguments and degree of domestic support. 3/ We have shown how such variation has resulted in different degrees of domestic contestation regarding the preferred foreign policy roles and, accordingly, different degrees of enactment of such roles.
Communication and deliveries
The results of the project have been communicated both in academic publications and different outreach activities. In terms of academic publications, we have written one research monograph, six academic articles, and one book chapter, and also presented our findings at eleven academic conferences (see below). All publications have been published open access. In addition to this we have devoted a considerable amount of time to participate in outreach activities both within and outside academia. In total we have given 16 public presentations based on the results from the project. We have presented the project and its results at foreign embassies, Almedalsveckan, the Swedish Institute of International Affairs, Centre for Military Studies at Copenhagen University, to mention a few. We have also participated in media and commented on current international affairs based on the knowledge derived from the project.