The East Asian Peace: A 1-year pilot project
östasien har varit förvånandsvärt fredligt sedan 1979 - om man utgår från antal dödade i väpnad konflikt. Medan det totala antalet dödade i strid under 1950-79 beräknas till 4,2 miljoner, är antalet sedan 1980 endast 124 000.
Pilotprojektet ska lägga den statistiska, konceptuella och historiska grunden för ett större forskningsprogram, syftande till att besvara två huvudfrågor:
1. Varför har östasien varit relativt förskonat från mellanstatliga konflikter sedan 1979?
Beror det på ändrad maktbalans, ekonomisk integration, ASEAN:s konsensus-kultur, politisk omprioritering eller något
annat?
2. Varför har intensiteten i regionens inomstatliga konflikter minskat? är orsaken stärkt statlig repressiv kapacitet, större
statlig legitimitet, eller en förmåga att hantera konflikter utan våld?
Pilotprojektet ska genomföras av Timo Kivimäki, Nordisk Institut för Asienstudier, Köpenhamn (koordinator), Stein Tønnesson, Institut för fredsforskning, Oslo, och Isak Svensson (Institutionen för freds och konfliktforskning, Uppsala Universitet).
Pilotprojektet ska precisera fenomenet - East Asian Peace - genom att utveckla och analysera tillgängliga statistiska indikatorer för väpnad konflikt, massaker och så vidare, belysa alternativa teoretiska ramverk och utveckla ny teori.
Pilotprojektets huvuduppgift är att utveckla ett förslag till ett forskningsprogram för ansökning till RJ och andra källor. Dessutom vill forskarna producera 3-4 artiklar.
Slutredovisning
Stiftelsen
RIKSBANKENS JUBILEUMSFOND
The Bank of Sweden Tercentenary Foundation
Final Report
P2008-0240:1-E The East Asian Peace: A 1-year pilot project
Dr Timo Kivimäki
NIAS-Nordisk Institut for Asienstudier
Leifsgade 33
DK-2300 Köpenhamn S
DANMARK
RJ Funding: 1 020 000 SEK
Project Aims
The main aim of the project was defined in the 2008 application as “to prepare the ground for a larger research program seeking to explain the East Asian Peace.” The application stated further that the pilot project would “establish conceptual and empirical paths for research and explanation by exploring trends in armed conflict and battle deaths, as well as in other forms of violence.” Under the heading “Outputs and Dissemination Plan” the application also promised that “during the pilot year the research team will produce 3-4 article manuscripts on the conceptual, empirical and historical aspects of East Asian Peace to be submitted to international peer-review journals.
These were the aims of the project, and they were all achieved, indeed over-achieved (See “Output” below).
Project period
The funding period was 1.1.-31.12. 2009, and the funds were all used during that period. However, the project team continued working on the project at full steam up to the Riksbankens Jubileumsfon deadline on 10 February 2010.
Project Team
In addition to project leader Timo Kivimäki (who during the project period was hired as professor of Asian security at the University of Copenhagen), the project team consisted of research professor Stein Tønnesson at the Peace Research Institute Oslo, PRIO, (where he stepped down as director on 30 June 2009) Stein Tønnesson and Dr Isak Svensson at Uppsala University (who during the project period was offered a temporary position at Otago University in New Zealand).
In accordance with the application, Timo Kivimäki worked 6 months on the pilot project, Isak Svensson also 6 months, and Stein Tønnesson 2 months.
Once it had been clarified that Stein Tønnesson would assume the leadership of the intended programme proposal to Riksbankens Jubileumsfond, he spent considerable extra time on the project, and concentrated on efforts to enlarge the core team, establish an advisory group, and recruiting external affiliated researchers for the planned six-year programme.
Output
1. Programme proposal to Riksbankens Jubileumsfond
The main output of the pilot project was a 6-year programme proposal submitted to Riksbankens Jubileumsfond on 10 February 2010 with the intention of mapping and explaining the relative peace in East Asia since 1979. After much deliberation it was decided to anchor this programme at the Department of Peace and Conflict Studies at the University of Uppsala, where programme leader Stein Tønnesson would take up a position as adjunct professor. The University of Uppsala welcomed the proposal, and promised to provide the necessary resources if the proposal should succeed. The core group was enlarged from three to five by including Erik Melander and Elin Bjarnegaard of Uppsala University. Since Isak Svensson is also normally based at Uppsala University and Stein Tønnesson will join it, this means that four of the five members of the core group will be based in Uppsala. In order to ensure the necessary country knowledge, language competence, and also competence in subject areas such as economy and law, the programme proposal also included 18 affiliate researchers, based at various institutions around the world.
The application was crowned with success when the Board of Riksbankens Jubileumsfond decided in October 2010 to fund the programme.
2. Conferences and network building
Conferences and panels organized under the pilot project (partly sponsored by the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, and partly by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs) were used both to discuss the topic under study and to recruit participants and advisory board members for the programme proposal. These included:
• Two project meetings at Uppsala University.
• Conference on The East Asian Peace: Explanations and Sustainability, organized by PRIO, the Institute of Defence Studies, Oslo, and the Institute of World Economy and Politics (IWEP), Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), Beijing 29 May 2009. This was funded in full by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
• A panel at the International Convention of Asia Scholars (ICAS) on the East Asian Peace, Deajeon, Korea 7 August 2009 (64 participants). This was partly funded by NIAS.
• Conference on the West European and East Asian Peace in conjunction with the Annual Conference of the ASEM Educational Hub, Yonsei University, Seoul, Korea 10 August 2009 (45 participants). This was partly funded by NIAS.
• Paper presentation and chairing of a session by Timo Kivimäki and Stein Tønnesson at the Jeju Peace Forum on East Asian security architecture, Jeju, Korea 11-13 August 2009 (40 participants in both panels). This was partly funded by NIAS.
• Visit by Stein Tønnesson to Korea, China and Mongolia, August 2009. This was partly funded by NIAS.
• Visit by Timo Kivimäki to Southeast Asia. This was partly funded by NIAS.
3. Publications
• Kivimäki, Timo (2010a) ‘East Asian peace. Is it for real? What is it?,’ Pacific Review, 23(4): 503–526.
• Kivimäki, Timo (2010b) ‘East Asian relative peace and the ASEAN Way,’ International Relations of the Asia Pacific, 10(4).
• Kivimäki, Timo (2010c) ‘The Jeju process and the relative peace in East Asia,’ Korean Journal of Defence Analysis, 22(3): 355–370.
• Kivimäki, Timo (2010d) ‘The Jeju Process and Multilateral Security Cooperation in East Asia,’ in Shaping New Regional Security Architecture in East Asia. Jeju Peace Forum Report. Vol II., by Jeju Peace Institute, Jeju.
• Kivimäki, Timo (manuscript) ‘Sovereignty, Hegemony and Peace in Western Europe and in East Asia,’ to be submitted to the Journal of Peace Research.
• Kivimäki, Timo (manuscript) ‘Security and Peace in East Asia and the Asia Pacific,’ review article to be submitted to Asian Security.
• Kivimäki, Timo and Stein Tønnesson, eds. Special issue of Asia Insights (December 2009) on the East Asian Peace (http://nias.ku.dk/nytt/2009_2/Asia_Insights_2_09_web.pdf).
• Kivimäki, Timo (2009) ‘East Asian Peace: What is it and why should it be studied?,’ Asia Insights 2/2009.
• Kivimäki, Timo & Stein Tønnesson (2009) ‘The Unacknowledged Peace and East Asia,’ Asia Insights 2/2009.
• Svensson, Isak (forthcoming) ‘East Asian Peacemaking: Exploring the patterns of conflict management and conflict settlement in East Asia?, accepted for publication in Asian Perspective.
• Svensson, Isak & Mathilda Lindgren (forthcoming) ‘From Bombs to Banners? The Decline of Wars and the Rise of Unarmed Uprisings in East Asia,’ submitted to Security Dialogue.
• Svensson, Isak and Lindgren, Mathilda (2009) ‘Peace and Protest: unarmed insurrections in East Asia, 1946-2006,’ Asia Insights 2/2009.
• Tønnesson, Stein (2009) ‘What Is It that Best Explains the East Asian Peace Since 1979? A Call for a Research Agenda,’ Asian Perspective 33(1): 111-136.
• Tønnesson, Stein (2009) ‘Peace for East Asia,’ Asia Insights 2/2009.
• Tønnesson, Stein (2009) ‘Tretti år med fred’ [Thirty Years of Peace], Kina & Vi, October: 7-10.
• Tønnesson, Stein (manuscript) ‘The Vietnam Peace,’ to be submitted to Journal of Vietnamese Studies.
4. Presentations and Lectures (2009 and 2010)
• Timo Kivimäki, Series of lectures on the East Asian Peace (28 h), Department of Political Science, University of Copenhagen, Spring 2010.
• Timo Kivimäki, ‘East Asian Peace, Does it Exist, What is it?’ Studia generalia of the Asian Dynamics Initiative, and NIAS – Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, 8 March 2010.
• Stein Tønnesson, ‘The Chinese Peace Since 1979,’ Sjefskurs 1, Forsvarets høgskole, Hadeland hotell, Gran, Norway, 6 January 2009.
• Stein Tønnesson, ‘The East Asian Peace Since 1979,’ presentation at the workshop “The East Asian Peace – Explanations and Sustainability”, Beijing, Institute of World Economy and Politics (IWEP), CASS, organized in co-operation with the Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO) and the Institute of Defence Studies, Oslo, 25 May 2009.
• Stein Tønnesson, ‘The East Asian Peace Since 1979,’ PRIO Anniversary Seminar, 11 June 2009.
• Stein Tønnesson, ‘Peace in Europe and East Asia: Similar or Diverging Explanations?’ Presentation to the workshop Long Peace of East Asia since 1979 and West Europe since 1945: Comparison and Implications Yonsei University, Seoul, 10 August 2009.
• Stein Tønnesson, ‘Peace in Europe, East Asia, and the World: What does it take for “small countries” like Norway and Mongolia to play a larger role?’ Lecture at the Institute for Strategic Studies, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia, 17 August 2009.
• Stein Tønnesson, ‘The East Asian Peace Since 1979,’ Lecture at Diplomatic Academy of Vietnam, Hanoi, 27 October 2009.
• Stein Tønnesson, ‘The East Asian peace since 1979,’ S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, 2 February 2010.
• Stein Tønnesson, ‘The East Asian peace since 1979,’ Institute of Democracy and Peace, Udayana University, Bali, 8 February 2010.
• Stein Tønnesson, ‘Østasias fred’ [The East Asian peace], Ris menighetshus, Oslo, 17 February 2010.
• Stein Tønnesson, ‘Peace and Conflict in Southeast Asia,’ keynote address, the 6th EUROSEAS conference, Göteborg, 28 August 2010.
• Stein Tønnesson, ‘The East Asian peace since 1979,’ Bjørknes University College, Oslo, 10 September 2010.
Copenhagen, December 15, 2010
Timo Kivimäki